Report: Gulf states could go hungry if Strait of Hormuz blocked

Report: Gulf states could go hungry if Strait of Hormuz blocked 

GeoStrategy direct w/e 27-Nov-13

The Gulf Cooperation Council faces the threat of a cutoff of food supplies, a report said. 

Britain's strategic institute, Chatam House, determined that the six GCC members were being threatened by regional instability. In a report, Chatam warned that Iran's blocking of the Strait of Hormuz could stop the flow of food to Gulf Arab states. 

"The food security of the Gulf Cooperation Council states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — rests almost entirely upon international trade," the report, titled "Edible Oil: Food Security in the Gulf," said. 

The report said more than 80 percent of wheat to the GCC moved through Egypt's Suez Canal, under threat from Islamist fighters. Another 80 percent of rice has been shipped through the Iran-dominated Strait of Hormuz. 

"The worst-case scenario is conflict in the wider Middle East and North Africa region that disrupts multiple import routes for a sustained period," the report, authored by Rob Bailey and dated November 2013, said. "GCC governments can hedge supply risks through strategic storage and investments in port and rail infrastructure to create a regional import and transport network." 

The report envisioned a scenario in which the Suez Canal would be closed. This would force food shipments to the GCC to make their way around the Cape of Good Hope. 

"But were regional conflict to close both Suez and the Strait of Hormuz, then Gulf governments could face real difficulties getting enough food into their countries," the report said. 

Chatam recommended that GCC states build strategic storage facilities for food. Another proposal was that Saudi Arabia improve its ports along the Red Sea. 

"Strategic stocks can provide GCC governments with a degree of insurance against price and supply risks," the report said. "Stocks can be judiciously accumulated or released to dampen domestic price volatility — building inventories when international prices are low and unwinding them when prices are high — though governments often have a poor track record of doing this in practice."