Protests in Ukraine and Geopolitical Realities

:Protests in Ukraine and Geopolitical Realities 

Stratfor Video Transcript 06-Dec-13 

Ukraine has seen much volatility over the past week as a result of the government's decision to not move forward with key EU agreements at last week's Eastern Partnership summit. During their peak, crowds of hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Kiev to protest against the decision and against the government in general. Officials from the EU and the U. s.said these demonstrations were a clear sign of the Ukrainian people's desire to join the West, and much of the media took these events as a sign of another Orange Revolution on the precipice. 

However, Stratfor has been more measured in its assessment of the events that have transpired in Ukraine. In fact, the decision by Ukraine to not sign the EU agreements, which took many European officials and much of the media by surprise, is something we forecast well before it happened. As such, there are a few key aspects to keep in mind in explaining why the situation in Ukraine has played out as it has and also in looking ahead to what can be expected in the future. 

The first is what would have happened if Ukraine actually had gone through with the EU agreements. In the months and weeks leading up to the decision, Russia had enacted and been threatening to enact further painful trade restrictions on Ukrainian goods if it signed the EU deals. Such a freeze on trade would have sent the Ukrainian economy, already in a delicate state, over the edge. Given Ukraine's economic dependence on Russia and the EU's inability to make up for such a shortfall, these threats were a major factor in derailing the EU agreements. 

The second is why Russia is really against Ukraine's integration with the EU. Given Ukraine's geographic location, its industrial and agricultural integration into Russia's heartland and status as a vital transit state for Russian energy to Europe, Ukraine has historically been crucial for Russia to keep in its orbit. While the EU agreements in and of themselves would not pose an existential threat to Russia, it is what they represent -- a long-term orientation of Ukraine toward the West at the expense of Russia -- that Moscow could not tolerate. In short, it was about geopolitical interests -- not ideology. 

Third is the significance of the protests. As Stratfor has written, the demonstrations have been just that -- demonstrations, not a revolution. Even at their peak, the demonstrations were largely composed of younger, Western-oriented people and opposition figures and failed to bring out broader segments of society. This explains why the protests were so big over the weekend but then substantially shrank in size during the week. 

And finally is the split nature of Ukraine. While much of the population is oriented toward the West and supports EU membership, there is also a substantial portion of the population that looks eastward and does not want to see Ukraine join the EU. This reflects cultural and political divisions in the country, as the political swings in Ukraine's chaotic post-Soviet era have shown. Had Ukraine signed the EU agreements, it is likely there would have been demonstrations against that decision as well; only those would have come from the other side of the social and political spectrum. And while Ukraine did not move forward with the EU agreements, it will show the same hesitation in making any significant moves toward integration with Russia. 

Maintaining a balance between Russia and the West is a key imperative for Ukraine. This is something very difficult to achieve, but it is this reality that frames the decision-making of any leader ruling the country.