Sunday, 23 February 2014

Crisis in Ukraine in Bible prophecy, Invasion of Israel, Christ's Second Coming



Jeremiah and other prophets predicted a great invasion of Israel "from the north". These 
prophecies had some primary fulfillments which pointed forward to the final denouement of the 
latter days. Around the time of Jeremiah, the Scythians had marauded much of the Middle East, 
including Israel. Although this is barely recorded in Biblical history, it is a well attested 
historical fact. When Jeremiah spoke of an invasion from the North, and Ezekiel spoke of 
marauding bands of Scythian-related tribes attacking the land, everyone would've thought of the 
recent attacks by the Scythians. As John Skinner put it: "In these events, especially the Scythian 
incursion into Palestine, most historians have found the suggestion and background of Jeremiah's 
prophecies of the Foe from the North" (1). Significantly, "Jeremiah's ministry is stated to have 
begun at approximately the time to which Herodotus assigns the Scythian invasion" (2). It could 
be argued that Jeremiah and Ezekiel's prophecies of a northern invader had a primary fulfillment 
in the lives of the prophets in the Scythian invasion, which were then to be understood as a type 
of the latter day invasion "from the north". This would be in keeping with the Mosaic test of a 
true prophet- his predictions must come to pass, otherwise he is to be seen as a false prophet. It 
could therefore be the predictions of the Biblical prophets about a northern invasion had to have 
a short term fulfillment, which had relevance to their ultimate 'fullerfilment' in the events of our 
last days. Whilst the prophecies do have some application to the Babylonian invasion of Judah, 
we must recall that Ezekiel was prophesying after that event, as Israel sat by the rivers of 
Babylon; and Jeremiah's descriptions of the northern invasion have some elements which fit 
better with the Scythian incursions than the Babylonian capture of Jerusalem. Not least the 
sudden, unexpected nature of the attacks is better fitted by far to the Scythians than to the 
Babylonians. It could be that his prophecies had an immediate primary fulfillment in the 
Scythian invasions, and then another dim fulfillment in the Babylonian capture of Jerusalem, 
both of which primary fulfillments look forward to the final denouement in the latter days. 

Who, then, were the Scythians? The question is important to understand because their invasions 
are a shadow of the latter day invasion of Israel. Much Soviet and Eastern European 
archeological research into the Scythians remains only in Russian and has never been released in 
English. If it had been, the Scythian invasions would perhaps have featured more prominently in 
the prophetic thinking of the Western brotherhood. Excavations of Scythian settlements 
throughout Russia and the Ukraine have yielded various objects which have also been found in 
the Middle Eastern areas which the Scythians invaded around the time of the Old Testament 
prophets. The Great Soviet Encyclopedia, the USSR's answer to the West's Encyclopedia 
Britannica (although much larger), has a wealth of information about these findings. Here are a 
few examples:

The Scythians had a very specific style of bronze arrowhead. The Soviet archaeologist A.M. 
Leskov discovered many of these in sites around Kakhovka and Lubimovka in the Ukraine- incidentally, the location of thriving Christadelphian ecclesias today. The very same style of 
arrowhead was unearthed in Samaria, Lachish and Amman (Jordan). 
- The same goes for Scythian horse bridles and iron axes.

The Scythians had very specific and distinctive styles of burial. Being horsemen from the 
steppes of Ukraine and southern Russia, the forerunners of the Cossacks, their leaders were 
buried with many horses. Thus there was the mass slaughter of horses, which were then buried 
with the dead leader. Throughout the former Soviet Union, such burial mounds have been 
unearthed- from the southern Ukraine to the frozen Scythian tombs in Pazryk in the Altai 
mountains (in Siberia, central Russia) (3). 
- The layout of Scythian burial chambers from the Ukraine through Russia and down to modern 
day Israel and Iran has been found to be identical (4). 


The various studies also contain the observation that the Scythian remains in Russia and Ukraine 
include not only loot they had taken back with them from the Middle East (e.g. Persian carpets 
preserved in the frozen burial mounds of Scythian villages in Siberia), but also reflect evidence 
of how the Scythians became influenced by Middle Eastern culture. This indicates how the 
Scythians made some alliances with some of the local powers during their time 'down South'. In 
some of the Scythian sites, notably Pazryk in Siberia, there are the motifs of the eagle, gryphon, 
winged lion etc.- which were all associated with Assyria and Babylon (5). This indicates some 
degree of co-operation between the Scythians and the Babylonians, rather than raw conflict 
between them. Indeed, there is both historical and archaeological evidence that the Scythians 
were mercenaries used by Nebuchadnezzar in his attack upon Jerusalem. Yamauchi reports how 
Scythian arrowheads have been found around Jerusalem in the same material which dates to the 
Babylonian destruction of the city and temple (6). That "day of the Lord" was a clear type of the 
final "day of the Lord" when the Northern armies attack God's people. This could well suggest a 
latter day coalition between latter day "Babylon" and the latter day Scythians- the inhabitants of 
Ukraine and Russia. In the early meetings between the Byzantines and the inhabitants of Ukraine 
and Southern Russia in the 9th century, the surviving records show the Scythian leaders (e.g. 
Prince Svetoslav) being addressed as "Prince of Rosh" or Rus by the emissaries from Byzantium. 
Several connections between Rosh / Rus and the Scythians are made by the Byzantine historian 
Leo the Deacon in his 10th century records; at times he uses the terms interchangeably (7). 

Given this background, we can look for the final 'northern invader' to be led by Babylon / 
Assyria, and yet to be supported by the latter day Scythians. We need to remember that most of 
the military achievements of Babylon / Assyria were not achieved by their own forces directly; 
their military and organizational genius was in mustering the support of mercenaries and other 
fighters. The Scythians played a large part in this when it came to Israel, even if Western 
versions of ancient history has been relatively quiet about it. Significantly, Ezekiel 38 speaks of 
the invasion with specific reference to this Scythian element. If we are to interpret the latter day 
Scythians geographically, then this would lead us to search for their latter day equivalent in the 
lands of Ukraine, Russia and the steppes of northern Kazakhstan. 

Sunday, 16 February 2014

Israel at a Point of No Return - In the Right Direction

Israel at a Point of No Return - In the Right Direction
by David P. GoldmanPJ Media 12-Feb-14
I should like to advance a conjecture which I lack the qualifications to adequately develop: The global Left, and the Israeli Left most of all, perceives that the clock is running out, and has worked itself up into a froth of hysteria against Israel. The world of John Lennon's "Imagine," where there are no countries and no religions, is about to dissipate like last night's marijuana fumes. The demographic time bomb that worries the Left is not the relative increase of Arab vs. Jewish populations between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, speciously cited by John Kerry and a host of other errant utopians: it is the growth of the Jewish population itself, and Israel's transformation into the world's most religious country.
Israel now has a religious majority, as Times of Israel blogger Yoseif Bloch observes:
    "According to our Central Bureau of Statistics, 43% of Israeli Jews are secular, 9% are haredi, and the remaining 48% are somewhere between masorti (traditional) and dati (religious): 23% the former, 10% the latter, and 15% smack in the middle. These five groups do not parallel the five groups identified by Pew, e.g. Orthodox is a denomination, while dati is a declaration."
So 57% of Israelis practice a form of Judaism that for the most part Americans would call "Orthodox," in that it recognizes normative Judaism in the rabbinic tradition (the presence of the "progressive" Reform and Conservative movements is almost imperceptible and largely limited to transplanted Americans). Many Israelis who are dati are far from completely observant, but there is a great gulf fixed between a semi-observant Jew who knows what observance is, and a "progressive" who asserts the right to reinvent tradition according to personal taste.
This majority seems to be expanding fast. I spent the second half of December in Jerusalem promoting the Hebrew translation of my book How Civilizations Die and was struck by the increase in commitment to religious observance, including among people who were steadfastly secular. Almost half of Israel's army officers are "national religious" and trained in pre-army academies that teach Judaism, Jewish history, as well as physical training and military subjects. The ultra-Orthodox are going to work rather than studying full time, little by little, but the little adds up to a lot. Naftali Bennett's national-religious party "Jewish Home" has created a new political focus for the national-religious. Outreach organizations like Beit Hillel are bringing once-secular Israelis back to observance. Beit Hillel's spiritual leader, Rabbi Ronen Neuwirth, was in New York recently lecturing about Israel's religious revival.
Anecdotally, I see this in my own small circle of Israeli acquaintances. A musician friend told me that he attends a Talmud class every Shabbat — he can't stand praying, but he is hungry for Torah. A journalist friend dresses her young boys in the tallit katan, the fringed undergarment of the very observant. It is becoming normal in Jerusalem restaurants to wash hands before bread and to recite the Grace after Meals.
This is a crucial, counterintuitive story: Israel is swimming against the secular current, becoming more observant as the rest of the world becomes more secular. Perhaps the explanation lies in the observation of the Catholic sociologist Mary Eberstadt, who argued in a brilliant 2007 essay that it is our children who bring us to faith. Last year Mary expanded the essay into a book which I had the honor to discuss in Claremont Review of Books. It is a commonplace of demographers' correlation that people of faith have more children: Mary argues that the causality goes both ways, that having children reinforces our faith. Israeli is a standpoint in the modern world with a fertility rate of 3.0 children per woman (the closest second is the U.S. with just 1.9). Excluding the ultra-Orthodox the number is 2.6 children per woman, still outside the range of the rest of the industrial world. Secular Israelis are having three children. Not only does that defuse the much-touted "demographic time bomb." It ultimately changes the character of the country. It validates the hundred-year-old argument of Rabbi Isaac Kook, one of the founders of religious Zionism, that identification with the Jewish people eventually will lead Jews back to Judaism.
This national religious revival is not occurring at the expense of Israeli or West Bank Arabs. On the contrary, the Arab population between the River and the Sea is flourishing as no modern Arab population ever did. A fifth of Israel's medical students are Arab, as are a third of the students at the University of Haifa. Ariel University across the "Green Line" in Samaria, the "settler's university," is educating a whole generation of West Bank Arabs. The campus is full of young Arab women in headscarves, and the local Jewish leadership reaches out to Arab villages to recruit talented students. Israel's expanding economy has a bottomless demand for young people of ability and ambition. The Left calls Israel an "apartheid state" the way it used to call America a "fascist state" back in the 1960s.
The Israeli Left, with its soggy vision of univeralist utopianism, may be at a point of no return. It is becoming marginalized and irrelevant. The Europeans, whose experience of nationalism has been uniformly horrific, are equally aghast. Liberal Christians who abhor the Election of Israel because they abhor Christian orthodoxy cannot suppress their rage. And "progressive" American Jews, who have been running away from Judaism for the past three generations, are upset that Israel has embraced the normative Judaism they worked so hard to suppress. American "progressive" and unaffiliated Jews, one should remember, have the lowest fertility rate of any identifiable minority in the United States. Even if most of them did not intermarry (and the intermarriage rate in the past ten years approaches 70% according to the October 2013 Pew study) their infertility would finish them off in a few generations. Meanwhile 74% of all Jewish children in the New York area live in Orthodox families. The center of gravity of Judaism will shift decisively to Israel in the next generation, and the segment of American Jewry that most identifies with Israel–the Orthodox–will set the tone for American Judaism and eventually become the majority in a much smaller American Jewish population.
It is up to the Israelis, to be sure, to draw out the implications of these trends. But I am encouraged by the perceptions of religious leaders like Rabbi Ronen Neuwirth, who perceive this revival in their daily work.
This is good news for Christians as well as Jews. The secularization thesis is refuted: a country with the world's greatest record of high-tech innovation is also becoming the industrial world's most religious country. It is devastating news for Lennonists as well as Leninists. The "Imagine" world turns out to be imaginary. Israel, as Franz Rosenzweig said of the Jewish people, is there to be "the paragon and exemplar of a nation." For all its flaws, the State of Israel stands as a beacon to people of faith around the world. It is honored by its list of self-appointed enemies. Will Israel prevail against the unholy coalition against it? As we say, b'ezrat Hashem.
    David P. Goldman is Senior Fellow at the London Center for Policy Research and Associate Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Russia Suddenly Feeling Under Siege

Russia Suddenly Feeling Under Siege
Stratfor 13-Feb-14
Russia is facing a confluence of strategic challenges in the former Soviet periphery, an area where the Kremlin has worked hard to expand Russian influence over the past decade. An emerging financial crisis in Kazakhstan and the political crisis in Ukraine are threatening Russia's economic and strategic interests. At the same time, progress in Georgia and Moldova's path toward European integration is eroding Russia's leverage in the region.
What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman explains.
These challenges to Russia's status as a resurgent regional power come at a delicate time because the country faces a growing host of domestic difficulties. Demographic decline, ethnic tensions and a continued dependency on an unreformed extractive industry are looming dark clouds on the horizon for the Kremlin. While not yet threatening Russia's dominance, the current crises in the former Soviet space are a challenge to Moscow's long-term strategy for the region.
Yesterday, the National Bank of Kazakhstan devalued the country's currency, the tenge, by nearly 20 percent in the aftermath of the emerging markets crisis that has been rocking developing economies over the past few weeks. The impact of the devaluation was immediate, with some currency exchanges and shops throughout Kazakhstan shutting down. More important, the devaluation has raised fears of contagion to other regional economies. A financial crisis in the Moscow-led Customs Union -- currently comprising Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus -- would hamper the expansion efforts of the bloc and perhaps even threaten the cohesion of what has been a cornerstone of Russia's strategy to secure its Central Asian hinterland.
The Kazakh move has also placed additional pressure on the already volatile economic and political situation in Ukraine, where Russia faces yet another strategic threat. Constrained in part by its need to maintain its international image during the Sochi Winter Olympics, Russia has been unsuccessful in helping President Viktor Yanukovich to end the political standoff and defuse the protests that have been reinvigorated by support from the West as well as from independent domestic actors. The ongoing political stalemate in Ukraine has demonstrated that although Russia has significant levers of influence in the country, it is for now unable to unilaterally shape political outcomes.
Farther west and south, Russia faces growing pressure in maintaining its influence in another two traditional strategic focal points: Georgia and Moldova. While those countries are not as essential to Russia's security as Ukraine, they are the key for the Kremlin's strategy of consolidating its southwestern flank. European incentives have contributed to the development of Moldova and Georgia's Western-leaning trajectory in recent years.
While Georgia's current ruling Georgian Dream coalition has been more open to engagement with Russia than the previous administration of President Mikhail Saakashvili, Georgia is developing a strong partnership with NATO and is pursuing a path to European integration that threatens Russia's policy. However, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili has balanced Wednesday's announcement that the United States would finance his country's participation in the NATO Response Force with a public statement that he would be willing to meet with Russian leaders. Similarly, Moldova is building stronger ties to Western institutions.
Also on Wednesday, the European Parliament took a step toward visa liberalization for Moldovans, further incentivizing Moldovan leaders to strengthen cooperation with the European Union. Russia's support for breakaway regions, as well as its past economic pressures on Georgia and Moldova, have not been effective in dissuading the countries from pursuing integration with the West.
Much of Moscow's current assertive foreign policy in its periphery has been driven by concerns that its relatively strong position in the region will come under threat, especially when the United States is able to pay serious attention to the former Soviet periphery. The Putin administration is in the process of addressing the delicate question of restructuring the country's energy sector -- the lifeline of the country's economy -- while also managing the country's looming demographic crisis and growing ethnic tensions, which have the potential to spiral into violence.
The confluence of crises in its periphery may not necessarily signify a definite weakening of Russia's global and regional position -- the European Union, for all its rhetoric, remains weak and internally divided while the United States remains relatively distant -- but it adds to Moscow's growing burden.

Israeli tech start-ups join London IPO wave

Israeli tech start-ups join London IPO wave
Daily Telegraph 12-Feb-14
Marimedia and Matomy part of a clutch of Tel-Aviv based businesses eyeing a London listing
Britain’s equity market is becoming a magnet for Israel-based technology companies which are considering choosing London rather than the Tel Aviv stock exchange this year for flotations.
Israeli investors and entrepreneurs raised $361m (£219m) last year via IPOs, the most since 2007, and a stark reversal of a trend which saw most companies exiting through a sale.
Israel has been dubbed the “start-up nation” due to an explosion of innovation in the region. Six Israeli technology companies are currently in discussions about listing in London this year, sources close to the process said.
Digital advertising company Matomy is understood to be working with Rothschild, UBS and Bank of America Merrill Lynch on launching an initial public offering before the summer. The company is looking to raise £60m, which will value it at around £200m to £300m. Matomy declined to comment.
Unlike other digital advertising companies, Matomy only charges a publisher when an advert generates revenues. The company’s founder, Kfir Moyal, started programming computers aged 10 and made $100 a month pocket money by building websites at 14.
The company now has 10 global offices in Israel, Spain, Germany, Mexico, San Francisco and New York, employing 400 people. Matomy has recorded double-digit revenue growth, reporting $200m last year.
Meanwhile, Marimedia, another Israeli digital advertising company, is in the early stages of considering a London listing, sources said.
The company is understood to have met with a clutch of investment banks but has not yet given a mandate.
A Marimedia spokesman declined to comment.
Digital advertising spending has grown at three times the rate of traditional advertising revenues, leaving companies to grapple with incorporating new technologies into their business plans.
Israeli website design company Wix, which successfully floated in New York last year, is understood to be behind the resurgence in Tel Aviv-based companies looking to tap the capital markets.

Iran Simulates Destruction of Tel Aviv

Iran Simulates Destruction of Tel Aviv
Israel Today 11-Feb-14
Iranian television over the weekend aired a special program threatening Israel and simulating the destruction of Tel Aviv.
As part of a documentary titled "The Nightmare of Vultures," the public was treated to computer-generated simulations of Iranian aircraft and missiles destroying civilian targets such as Hamedina Square, Ben Gurion Airport and the Azrieli Towers in Tel Aviv.
The simulations were interspersed with footage of Israelis seeking shelter during the Second Lebanon War in 2006, when Hezbollah fired thousands of missiles into northern Israel.
Iranian military officials also warned that they could easily sink American ships stationed in the region, and boasted of having the Middle East's largest army. They claimed that an Iranian fleet is already sailing for America's territorial waters.
While US officials were understandably unimpressed with the threats, the Iranian bluster again demonstrated that the Islamic Republic does indeed have hostile intentions toward Israel, and as such should be prevented from attaining nuclear weapons

Third shipment of chemical weapons leaves Syria - UN

Third shipment of chemical weapons leaves Syria - UN
BBC 11-Feb-14
A third shipment of chemical weapons materials has left Syria, with some destroyed inside the country, the global chemical weapons watchdog says.
The material was shipped on board a Norwegian cargo vessel, accompanied by a fleet from China, Denmark, Norway and Russia, the joint UN-OPCW mission said.
Syria has recently missed several deadlines in an internationally-agreed destruction timetable.
But the government insists it will meet the final deadline at the end of June.
Under a UN resolution backed by Russia and the US, Syria is to surrender all of its 1,300 tonnes of declared chemical weapons for destruction by mid-2014.
But the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which is overseeing the destruction operation with the UN, has admitted the process has been slowed down by security concerns.
The announcement came as a second round of peace talks between the Syrian government and opposition negotiators opened in Geneva.
Call for expedition
In its latest statement, the joint mission said it "welcomed the progress to date," but did not detail how much material had been shipped out or destroyed.
However, it encouraged the Syrian authorities "to expedite systematic, predictable and high-volume movements to complete the safe removal of chemical materials".
Last week, Syria failed to meet a deadline to ship "priority two" material out of the country, which the government said was caused by attacks on shipments of weapons en route from Damascus to the port of Latakia.
US officials have voiced concerns that the UN-backed plan is falling behind schedule. But Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mekdad told the BBC last week that "Syria is doing its best" to comply with the timetable.
So far, only around 30 of 1,300 tonnes have been removed - 4% of "priority one" chemicals and roughly the same percentage of "priority two".
The removal of priority one chemicals was due for completion by 31 December, while the deadline for priority two was 5 February.
Russia - a key ally of Syria - has said Damascus should complete the transfer of its chemical weapons to the coast for removal by ship by 1 March.
The deal to eradicate Syria's chemical weapons came about after a chemical weapons attack in August in the outskirts of Damascus that killed hundreds of civilians.
The US and Syrian opposition blamed the government for the attack. It denied responsibility.

Mediterranean energy finds ‘game changers’ in renewed Cyprus peace drive

Mediterranean energy finds ‘game changers’ in renewed Cyprus peace drive
The Times of Israel 11-Feb-14
As leaders prepare to meet in world’s last divided capital, prospect of gas deal with Israel increases likelihood of resolution
Greek- and Turkish-Cypriot leaders meet Tuesday to relaunch talks on ending the island’s division after a nearly two-year break, with optimism that the energy card could provide a breakthrough.
Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek-Cypriot leader, and his Turkish-Cypriot counterpart Dervis Eroglu are to unveil a road map for the renewed UN-brokered talks, finally agreed on last week after protracted haggling over the text delayed a relaunch originally earmarked for November.
The breakthrough, according to experts, was triggered by the changed dynamics in the region created by the island’s untapped gas and oil riches offshore and a huge natural gas find in waters off neighboring Israel.
Hopes are high that these factors can transform the current frosty climate into one of reconciliation and trust that would make an elusive peace deal achievable.
“Turkey and Israel’s energy cooperation has triggered an American intervention and forced both sides to agree on a joint statement leading to a resumption of talks,” Hubert Faustmann, associate professor of history and political science at Nicosia University, told AFP.
“Washington has put so much weight behind this latest peace effort because oil and gas is a game changer in the wider context … It’s a win-win situation for all,” he added.
He said the lack of a Cyprus settlement after 40 years of division was hindering Israel’s cooperation with Nicosia to export gas.
“Israel is looking to diversify by gas pipeline through the sea of Cyprus to Turkey and invest in an LNG plant on the island, but Israel won’t give its gas to Cyprus unless there is a solution,” said Faustmann.
The talks, starting from 11:30 am, are to be held in the UN-controlled buffer zone in Nicosia, the world’s last divided capital.
Turkish Cypriots suspended the last round of talks in mid-2012 when Anastasiades’s internationally-recognized Republic of Cyprus assumed the European Union’s rotating presidency.
A draft text of the joint statement leaked to the media says any final agreement would be subject to simultaneous referendums in both communities.
“This is the best chance for peace since 2004 because of oil and gas,” said Faustmann.
Cyprus joined the EU in 2004 still a divided island, after Greek Cypriot voters rejected a UN reunification blueprint that was approved by Turkish Cypriots.
And current President Anastasiades was one of the few Greek Cypriot politicians to back the controversial UN plan 10 years ago.
The US — which has commercial interests in the island’s gas and oil exploration — is aware that a divided Cyprus is a source of tension for NATO members Greece and Turkey.
Turkey is opposed to Cyprus exporting oil and gas – saying the energy wealth also belongs to Turkish Cypriots — and been accused of “gunship diplomacy” by the Greek Cypriots.
“There are huge time pressures for energy investment and any delay will see more economic misery for Cypriots,” said Faustmann.
A resumption of talks was delayed by the eurozone debt crisis, which forced Nicosia to secure a bailout from international creditors last March, plunging the island into deep recession.
Cyprus has been divided since Turkish troops invaded and occupied its northern third in 1974 in response to an Athens-engineered coup aimed at uniting it with Greece.
A breakaway state which Turkish Cypriot leaders declared in 1983 is recognized only by Ankara.
Greece has given its backing to renewed talks, with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras calling them “one of the leading priorities of Greek foreign policy.”

PA Minister: We Demand Sovereignty Over Kotel

PA Minister: We Demand Sovereignty Over Kotel
Arutz Sheva 11-Feb-14
A top Palestinian Authority official said that the PA was demanding sovereignty over all areas of Jerusalem Israel liberated in the Six Day War, including the Kotel (Western Wall).
Speaking to Channel Ten, Mahmoud al-Habbash, Minister of Holy Places in the PA, said that “there will be no peace until the end of the Israeli occupation that began in 1967. Every piece of land that Israel conquered then belongs to the Palestinians.” That includes Jerusalem, “the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Western Wall.”
Asked what would happen if Jews wished to pray at the Wall, al-Habbash said “they will be welcome, there will be no problem. There will be no limitations on freedom of religion and worship. Religious ceremonies are one thing, and politics are another.”
Under the Oslo Accords, Israelis are supposed to have access to several religious sites in PA-controlled areas of Judea and Samaria. In actuality, however, Jews are almost completely banned from these sites, including the Tomb of Joseph in Shechem and the Tomb of Joshua in Kifl Hares. Jews are rarely allowed to visit these sites, and then only under very strict security conditions. Several Jews, including Rabbi Hillel Lieberman h”yd, have been killed in area of Joseph's Tomb.
With that, Channel Ten quoted sources in the PA that most of the issues brought up in the negotiations being conducted by US Secretary of State John Kerry, including land swaps, have been resolved. But the Palestinians are insisting that all areas of Jerusalem liberated in the Six Day War, including the Jewish Quarter, the Kotel, and Jewish neighborhoods such as French Hill, Ramat Eshkol, and Har Homa be placed under PA sovereignty. Kerry has spent much time and effort in trying to come to a compromise on Jerusalem, but has so far failed, PA sources said.
Speaking to Channel Ten, the PA's Jerusalem Minister, Abu-Ala, said that the current round of negotiations was one of the most intense ever between Israel and the PA, thanks to the strenuous efforts of Kerry to get the two sides to agree to a negotiation framework.
But he said that effort came with a risk.
“Given the intensity with which the Americans are approaching this, there will probably be undesirable consequences if the talks fail.”

Egypt, Russia Seal $2B Arms Deal

Egypt, Russia Seal $2B Arms Deal
Arutz Sheva 09-Feb-14
Saudi Arabia and UAE foot the bill for sale of advanced defense systems, helicopters, aircraft and anti-tank missiles.
Egypt has concluded an arms deal with Russia worth $2 billion, a senior official source told Egyptian daily newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm, noting that the Egyptian and Russian sides reached agreement on all details of the agreement over the past few weeks.
The source, who asked not to be named, said the two Gulf kingdoms of Saudi Arabia and the UAE played a “vital role” in sealing the deal.
The official revealed that the first tranche of Russian weapons to Egypt will be delivered before mid-2014. The delivery and payments will both be phased, he explained.
In November, Russia declared that it had received an Egyptian offer to buy advanced defense systems, military helicopters, MiG-29 aircraft and anti-tank missiles with a combined value of $2 billion. The overall cost of the purchase was in fact double, but cash-strapped Egypt would only pay half of that, according to the source. The apparent show of Russian largess was no act of altruistic generosity, however; the Kremlin has been aggressively capitalizing on perceived American weakness in the Middle East to - particularly over crises in Iran and Syria - to expand its own sphere of influence in the Arab world, which until recently was limited to Syria.
According to reports in a Kuwaiti newspaper late last year, one of the objectives of the arms deal was to enable a newly pro-Russian Egypt to achieve military parity with the United State's closest ally in the region: Israel.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with Kuwait, have been Egypt's top Arab financiers following the overthrow of Islamist president Mohammed Morsi, with financial and in-kind aid totalling about $12 billion. Since the overthrow of Morsi's predecessor Hosni Mubarak in 2011, the north Africa state has seen its economy go into a virtual free-fall, and now relies heavily on foreign support.
Saudi Arabia's intelligence chief, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan al-Saud, reportedly told European diplomats in October that his country plans to scale back its cooperation with the US in efforts to arm and train Syrian rebels, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The decision was said to be the result of Riyadh's "frustration" with the Obama administration's foreign policy in the Middle East, and reflects a growing sense of discontent by one of America's staunchest Arab allies.
That statement came days after the Gulf Kingdom surprised observers by turning down a temporary position on the United Nations Security Council, in what it said was a protest at the Security Council's ineffectiveness in solving regional conflicts.
Saudi Arabia is also said to be concerned about American overtures to its arch-foe, Iran, and alarmed at what they see as an incoherent and weak American Middle East strategy.
“The Saudis are very upset. They don’t know where the Americans want to go,” WST quoted a "senior European diplomat" as saying.

Pentagon expands, modernizes its base for Fifth Fleet in Bahrain

Pentagon expands, modernizes its base for Fifth Fleet in Bahrain
GeoStrategy direct w/e 12-Feb-14
 The United States has advanced in a project to expand its military presence in Bahrain.
Officials said the Defense Department has been awarding contracts for the expansion of the U.S. Navy base outside Manama.
The U.S. will invest $500 million to expand its Fifth Fleet base in Manama.
They said the project, estimated at more than $500 million, focused on construction and modernization of facilities at the Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters, responsible for operations in the Gulf.
On Jan. 22, the Pentagon awarded a $9.7 million contract for the construction of the Fifth Fleet complex. Under the contract, American International Contractors would construct the British Maritime Component Command at Bahrain's Mina Salman port.
"Funds in the amount of $9,788,000 were obligated at the time of the award," the Pentagon said.
American International has been identified as a leading company in the U.S. military project in Bahrain, overseen by the Army's Corps of Engineers. The project was meant to establish additional residential facilities as well as protect the compound from attack.
Officials said the Pentagon has overseen the completion of a flyover at Mina Salman. The 122.5 meter-long bridge, begun in September 2012, was installed on Jan. 31 by the U.S. company Contrack NASS.
"This will remain a landmark project in the history of bridge construction in Middle East," Contrack International chief executive officer Wahid Hakki said.
Under the latest Pentagon contract, American International would construct a forward support unit warehouse and headquarters for the British component. The contract was expected to be completed in April 2015.
"Bids were solicited via the Internet, with eight received," the Pentagon said. "Work will be performed in Bahrain."

Where Is Germany’s Gold?

Where Is Germany’s Gold?
The Trumpet 07-Feb-14
You may have heard something about this story. So, here’s what we know so far:
 In 2012, the Bundesbank (the central bank of Ger many) asked to visit the vault of the Federal Reserve in New York, to view the 1,536 tons of gold they have stored there
 The Federal Reserve told them no. They were not allowed to see their gold
 In response, Germany said that they wanted 300 tons of their gold back
 The Federal Reserve said that they’d need seven years to get the gold back to Germany. (Something that should take them seven weeks, tops.)
  One year later, the Fed has returned only 5 tons of gold to Germany. At this rate, it will take 60 years for the Germans to get less than one fifth of their gold  back
Though I don’t know precisely what, it is very clear that something strange is going on here. … Shipping 300 tons of metal is hardly a new and difficult technical challenge. Companies involved in metal trading do this all the time. Sure, gold requires extra security, but security is also something that lots of people know how to provide. … The president of Germany’s top financial regulations group said that manipulation of gold and silver “is worse than the Libor-rigging scandal.” (The Libor scandal was and is a big deal, and lots of lawsuits are underway over it.) That’s a big accusation
Then, Deutsche Bank, the biggest German bank, dropped out of the London gold fixing pool; the group of bankers that set the official price of gold. This is also related to the investigations by European regulators into thesuspected manipulation of precious metals prices by banks
Again, this is a very significant event
Germany does not seem happy about what the Fed is doing to them. … In addition to this, the Financial Times ran an article advising investors to demand physical delivery of their gold. Bloomberg published an article on gold price manipulation
So, given what we know, the obvious question becomes, “What’s really going on?” The first answer is that we simply do not know. Most likely, however, is that all of Germany’s gold has been lent out and/or used as loan collateral multiple times and that the Fed is having a very hard time unwinding all those loans. If they just give the gold back, the collateral for hundreds (maybe thousands) of international loans goes away
And when I say “lent out multiple times,” I am not speaking loosely
There is a financial trick called rehypothecation  that allows bankers to use the same stack of gold as the collateral for simultaneous loans over and over and over
So, in order to pull Germany’s gold out of the lending game (and central banks do loan out gold), lots and lots of loans would have to be rehypothecated to other piles of gold, and that requires a lot of office work. Each bar of Germany’s gold could be involved in a dozen loans, each of which must be rearranged
This would account for the slowness of the Fed returning the gold back to where it belongs
Of course, there are other possibilities. Maybe the Fed is just trying to punish Germany for some reason … or that the gold is simply no longer there—that the Fed or its friends sold it. … The one thing we can be sure of is that the Federal Reserve and the Bundesbank are at odds. What will come from that is unknown, but this is a very significant problem between giants, and it is already producing consequences.

Australia's Woodside agrees on Leviathan gas field stake

Australia's Woodside agrees on Leviathan gas field stake
UPI 07-Feb-14
Australian energy company Woodside Petroleum said Friday it signed an agreement to buy a stake in the Leviathan gas field off the Israeli coast.
Woodside said it signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. and Israeli partners at Leviathan to acquire a 25 percent stake in the gas field.
Noble Energy Corp., which has headquarters in Houston, is developing the field alongside Delek Group, Avner Oil Exploration and Ratio Oil Exploration. Woodside said it aims to close the deal by March and would pay up to $2.5 billion for the Leviathan stake.
Once closed, Woodside said it would serve as the operator in any development of liquefied natural gas from the field. Noble would stay on as the field's upstream operator.
Woodside Chief Executive Officer Peter Coleman said the agreement is a "compelling" opportunity for his company, which holds a stake in LNG operations in Australia.
"We look forward to the ongoing engagement with the joint venture, government and other stakeholders to move forward with the Leviathan project," he said in a statement.
Noble Energy estimates Leviathan holds as much as 18.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Its operators said it could start commercial production by 2016.

A Chronology of Russia's Resurgence

A Chronology of Russia's Resurgence
Stratfor 07-Feb-14
Editor's Note: As global attention turns to Russia during the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi -- with questions about security and culture at the fore -- Stratfor is publishing collections of analyses that illuminate the geopolitical context of the region. The following is the first installment of this series.
Russia has come a long way from the chaotic and fractured days following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now that the country is relatively strong and stable, it can extend its influence back into former Soviet states and compete with other world powers in regions beyond. Stratfor has examined this important geopolitical trend since its inception at the turn of the 21st century. Below is a chronology of Stratfor's coverage of the most important events and drivers of Russia's resurgence.
Russia on the Edge of Change
Oct. 11, 1999: At the turn of the century, Stratfor saw Russia on the edge of a wholesale transition:
    Russia's die is cast. The great post-Communist economic and political experiment has failed … Russia's current political and economic situation is unsustainable, and the country faces a choice: return power to the perestroikists -- open to Western investment but only under carefully controlled terms -- or surrender to reactionaries, who oppose Russia's kleptocrats. The reformists have had their chance; they have no legitimacy in Russia.
Putin and the Oligarchs: The Battle for Russia
July 14, 2003: Russia in 1999 was economically, politically and socially devastated, and Western forces were encroaching on its borderlands. Something had to change or Russia would have remained broken and weak. This is what generated the rise of Vladimir Putin and his team of KGB alumni, alongside deep social and economic thinkers.
Between 2000 and 2007, Putin's first order of business was to clean house. The Kremlin recentralized the country politically under a pro-Putin political party and socially by rallying nationalism and wooing the youths under the guise of the Nashi youth movement. Economically, the Kremlin recentralized the majority of business and financial drivers in the country, mostly by creating state champions for energy transit, banking and more -- purging oligarchs who resisted. Russia also launched the Second Chechen War in order to get militancy under control and to prevent secessionist movements.
Russia Leverages Energy for Influence
Jan. 18, 2006: As the Kremlin's control over Russia solidified, Moscow turned its attention to its periphery and to the growing pro-Western movement on the edge of the Russian sphere of influence. The pro-Western Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003 and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 -- as well as those two countries' discussions on potential membership in NATO and the European Union -- set Russia in motion to start pushing the tide back.
Beyond Moscow's political relationships with the former Soviet states, Russia had two primary tools to push back Western influence and reverse the countries' pro-Western tilt: its economic and military power. Between 2006 and 2009, Russia used its massive exports of oil and natural gas through Ukraine to Europe as leverage both in Ukraine and among many other European nations -- particularly Germany -- relying on selective pricing, cutoffs and negotiations to extend Moscow's influence.
Russia Flexes its Muscles in the Former Soviet States
Aug. 18, 2008: Russia flexed its muscles in 2008 when it went to war with Georgia. Moscow's goal was to show former Soviet states seeking alliances with NATO that the West could not back up its security commitments.
The Russian Customs Union
Oct. 31, 2011: By 2010, Russia had expanded its plans to re-establish influence in former Soviet states by introducing a new alliance system called the Customs Union, which Moscow says will be transformed into the Eurasian Union by 2015. Currently only Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are members, but there are plans to expand the union to include Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
Former Soviet States Choose Between East and West
July 12, 2013: The concept of a Russia club has now driven many former Soviet states to choose between closer ties with the European Union or with the Customs Union. This type of dilemma sparked the current political crisis in Ukraine. Russia's constant pressure on many of former Soviet states has led to adjustments in previously anti-Russian governments, as seen in Georgia in 2013. Russia has been able to prevent countries like Georgia and Ukraine from further integrating with the West -- though it has not yet been able to pull them into its own bloc.

A European Boycott of Israel?

):A European Boycott of Israel?
Middle East Quarterly Spring 2014 13-Feb-14
 3 page PDF. http://www.meforum.org/3747/europe-boycott-israel

Saturday, 15 February 2014

Obama may be in two minds over Kerry’s Israeli-Palestinian peace mission

Obama may be in two minds over Kerry’s Israeli-Palestinian peace mission
Debka 07-Feb-14
The give-and-take over an Israeli-Palestinian accord, doggedly kept afloat by US Secretary of State John Kerry, is resolving itself into a complex personal dynamic: Israel’s A-team - Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon – are not of one mind on the issues; Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas’s popular base is infamously narrow and flimsy. And John Kerry, too, needs to overcome reservations in President Obama’s White House team to obtain his blessing for an accord. He is not entirely sure he will get it. Ya’alon is the holdout.
However, Lieberman's defense of the Secretary of State's views was welcomed by the State Department as “very important to the peace process, given his background on these issues and where his view was,”
Friday, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s said: “Kerry is a true friend of Israel. I don’t see the point of turning friends into foes.
"Kerry is leading the process correctly,” Lieberman added.
Lieberman’s change of heart may be attributed to his political ambition and desire to attract and lead a strong centrist camp.
Top of the Document
February 8, 2014 Briefs
    Egyptian air strikes kill 16 Sinai terrorists
    Egypt’s military spokesman Col. Ahmed Mohammed Ali said on Saturday that the air strikes had targeted hideouts of "terrorist, extremely dangerous" armed groups with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood in the northern Sinai, killing 16 terrorists,.
    First Iranian warships head for US Atlantic borders
    The commander of Iran's Northern Navy Fleet, Admiral Afshin Rezayee Haddad, said Saturday that several warships - the destroyer Sabalan and logistic helicopter carrier Khark - have begun their journey to the Atlantic Ocean near US maritime waters for the first time. They carry a message, he said: Tehran is responding to US naval deployments near its own coastlines.
    Grenade thrown at Israeli patrol on 443 Rte to Jerusalem
    An improvised grenade was thrown Saturday night at an Israeli military patrol on Rte 443 to Jerusalem near Maccabim. There were no casualties. The soldiers fired in the air. debkafile: A high alert has been in force on Rte 443 since mid-week following intelligence of Palestinian terrorist gangs preparing to hit the passing traffic.
    Khamenei reverts to anti-American abuse
    Iran’s Supreme Leader said Saturday: "American officials tell our authorities at talks that they are not after regime change in Iran. They are lying because they won't hesitate a moment if they had the ability to do so," he said.
    US concerned by Americans fighters returning home from Syria
    The civil war in Syria has become a matter of US homeland security over concerns that “a small number of Americans” have gone to fight with Syrian rebels and returned home,” the new US Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson said Friday. The estimated 7,000 foreigners from 50 countries fighting in the bloody war include those from the United States, Canada and Europe, he said.

February 9, 2014 Briefs
    Israeli man stabbed in Jerusalem Old City
    The Orthodox Israeli man, 24, was stabbed in the back at the Damascus Gate of Jerusalem’s Old City. He suffered a moderate injury. His assailant got away.
    Israel air strike injures wanted Al Qaeda-linked terrorist
    The IDF spokesman reported that Abdullah Harouti, 29, a high-profile operative of the al Qaeda-linked Sinai-Gaza-based Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, was gravely injured riding a motorcycle in the Gaza Strip. Harouti was wanted for the attack eighteen months ago from Egyptian Sinai on an Israeli bus carrying soldiers and other vehicles on Rte 12 to Eilat. Six Israelis were killed in that attack and 40 injured. He is also connected to recent Absar Bayt al-Maqdis missile fire from Sinai against Israeli targets, including the resort town of Eilat.

Russian anti-terror drive leaves 10 dead around Sochi

9 Feb. Russian special forces are engaged in a relentless offensive to pin down would be Islamist terrorists on their home ground or hideouts in Dagestan, Chechnya, Kirgizstan and Kabardino Balkaria, casting a wide safety fence around the Winter Olympic Games which opened in Sochi Friday, Feb. 7. Seven terrorists were killed in Russian operations. debkafile: This safety net has been spread across the Caucasius and France, Austria and Germany, with special focus on suspected female suicide terrorists. This preventive offensive must be sustained at top pitch until the Feb. 23 closing ceremony, which is believed to be a special target for suicide bombers.
French police last week detained an unknown number of Chechen women at La Roche-sur-Yon and Strasbourg. In Austria and Germany, our sources report at least 10 terror suspects taken into custody, most of them females. The authorities there are keeping this affair closely secret.

February 10, 2014 Briefs
    Rouhani: Iran test-launches two long-range missiles
    The day after being taken to task for cancelling an missile exercise, President Hassan Rouhani disclosed successful launches of two long-range ballistic missiles. One was said to have radar-evading capabilities; the second laser-guided and could be fired from the ground or from aircraft.
    Iran’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi also revealed a new generation of extra-powerful centrifuges that are 15 to 16 times more powerful than the older types. Iran will therefore lose noting by diplomacy with the six powers.
    Rocket from Gaza explodes near Ashkelon
    Another rocket was fired from Gaza Monday and exploded outside Ashkelon.

Iran spreads its war wings: Hizballah deepens role in Syria. Israel, Syria, Lebanon declared “regions of conflict”

10 Feb. In a policy makeover, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to seal off in a separate policy compartment Iran’s nuclear diplomatic tactics for obtaining sanctions relief - and for dominating the Syrian war negotiations resuming in Geneva, Monday, Feb. 10, and Iran’s pursuit of its regional goals, in another box. Alongside diplomacy, Al Qods Brigades chief Qassem Soleimani will execute Iran’s drive to expand its regional interventions, Hizballah is already deepening its role in the Syrian civil war, while Lebanon, Syria and Israel are targeted by Tehran as “areas of conflict.”

February 11, 2014 Briefs
    Cameron cancels trip to Israel, Palestinian Authority over flood crisis
    To take charge of the flood crisis inundating large parts of southern Britain since December, Prime Minister David Cameron announced Tuesday he was cancelling his Mid East trip next week with apologies to Binyamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas. “Money is no object for dealing with the crisis,” he pledged.
    Iran’s Rev Guards chief calls US military option ”ludicrous”
    Revolutionary Guards chief Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari dismissed the viability of a US military option against Iran as ludicrous. Addressing the “Death to USA Grand Prize” ceremony in Tehran, he added that Iranian military and security commanders are not bluffing about the country’s military capability, concluding that“Americans really cannot do a damn thing.”
    Abe Foxman to step down as ADL director
    After almost half a century of service as national director of the Anti-Defamation League, Abraham Foxman, 73, the scourge of anti-Semites and other racists, announces he is retiring in July 2015. He was born in the Soviet Union, survived the Holocaust as a hidden child and moved to the United States with his parents. The ADL has 30 regional offices in the United States and one in Israel.
    Israel displays new Super Heron drone at Singapore
    The Israeli Aerospace Industry unveiled its new Super Heron UAV at the Singapore Airshow Tuesday. The drone is powered by a 200 hp heavy-fuel for maximum sped of 150 knots and is fitted with aerodynamic enhancements such as winglets.
    Obama-Hollande talks to cover Iran, Syria, Lebanon, al Qaeda in Africa
    Visiting French President Francois Hollande was accorded exceptional honors by his host Barack Obama on arrival for his two-day state visit to Washington. Their talks cover areas where the two leaders are in accord: efforts to resolve nuclear concerns in Iran, ending the civil war in Syria, and fighting al Qaeda incursions in Africa.
    Israeli air strikes target two terrorist targets after Gaza rockets
    Israeli air strikes hit a buried rocket launch pad and a Hamas training facility in the Gaza Strip early Tuesday in reprisal for Palestinian rocket fire in recent days. debkafile: Reports in local media that Israel had shifted its reprisal policy away from air strikes to targeted assassinations of high-profile terrorists were unfounded. Both remain in force.

Washington asks Netanyahu to hold back from answering Iranian threats

11 Feb. Iran’s leaders celebrated the 35th anniversary of their Islamic revolution Tuesday, Feb.11, with a torrent of hate rhetoric and threats surpassing even the crudely belligerent language used by former President Mahmoud Ahamedinejad. As his audience burned US and Israeli flags and stamped on placards depicting President Obama, President Hassan Rouhani mocked America’s military option, while Khamenei called for Israel’s extermination as a “cancerous growth” in the Middle East. Yet Barack Obama opted not to react and persuaded Prime Minister Netanyahu follow his lead.

Netanyahu accepts Kerry’s “framework” in principle

11 Feb. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has informed Washington of his acceptance in principle of US Secretary of State John Kerry’s framework document - subject to reservations raised with US Special Envoy Martin Indyk. A high-ranking US official told debkafile: “We all know the die is cast in Jerusalem and Netanyahu has accepted Kerry’s guidelines. They are now working on the reservations he needs to submit for his government coalition to survive the expected storm of protest and resistance and for the talks with the Palestinians to carry on.”

February 12, 2014 Briefs
    March 3 set for Netanyahu White House visit
    The White House announced that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will meet President Barack Obama on March 3. They will discuss progress in negotiations with the Palestinians, the Iranian nuclear question and other regional issues. . debkafile: That meeting signifies that the prime minister has decided to accept the US Secretary of State John Kerry’s line on the peace talks ongoing with the Palestinians
    Iran’s top soldier joins chorus of war threats
    Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces General Hassan Firouzabadi said Wednesday that Iran is ready for the “decisive battle” against the US and the Zionist regime. "We warn them that if an attack is launched on our troops from any territory, we will invade all the enemy’s possessions,” he reiterated.
    Egypt’s Gen. El-Sisi in Moscow to sign $2 bn arms deal
    Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi arrived in Moscow Wednesday for a two-day visit during which he will sign a large arms transaction worth $2 bn, financed by Saudi Arabia - confirming debkafile reporting in recent weeks. The package will include new Russian warplanes and missiles.

February 13, 2014 Briefs
    Israeli patrol shoots Palestinian dead at Gaza fence
    The IDF patrol opened fire on three Palestinians trying to sabotage the Gaza border fence, when they ignored two warnings to back off and shots fired in the air. One of the three Palestinians was killed.
    Putin backs El-Sisi’s bid for Egyptian presidency
    Although the Egyptian strongman Gen. Abdul-Fattah El-Sisi has not officially announced his run for the presidency, Russian President Vladimir greeted him warmly in Moscow Wednesday, saying: "I know that you, mister defense minister, have decided to run for president of Egypt. I wish you luck.”
    Seven explosive packages sent to UK army offices
    A suspicious vehicle detained outside an RAF base was found to contain an explosive package after seven packages, at least two containing “small but viable explosive devices,” were delivered to UK army offices in southern England Thursday. They arrived as British authorities including the army were struggling with a major flood disaster.
    Found and Lost in Gaza: Unique bronze statue of Apollo
    A complete bronze statue of Apollo, at least 2,000 years old and weighing half a ton, was caught by a Gaza fisherman last August and taken home on a donkey cart - only to be seized by Hamas police and to disappear again. The statue has not been seen since – only intriguingly a photo of the nude god with all his limbs intact, laid out on what looks like the kitchen table at the fisherman’s home.

Syrian-Hizballah forces storm Yabroud

13 Feb. Syrian and Hizballah troops launched a major assault Wednesday, Feb. 12, on Yabroud, the Christian-Sunni Muslim town, 80 km north of Damascus, which is the last stronghold in the strategic Qalalmoun mountains held by Syrian rebel and Islamist forces. debkafile: Its fall would open the highway from Damascus to Homs and the Allawite regions, secure Hizballah’s supply routes from Lebanon and potentially revive flagging Syrian army morale. Iranian Al Qods Brigades spies report Yabroud is also the source of the bombing attacks targeting Hizballah in Beirut, Baalbek and the Beqaa Valley.

Raging Internal Discord in Iran. Revolutionary Guards Plot Rouhani’s Overthrow and Shutdown of Nuclear Diplomacy

Raging Internal Discord in Iran. Revolutionary Guards Plot Rouhani’s Overthrow and Shutdown of Nuclear Diplomacy
Debka 14-Feb-14
Just a week before nuclear talks resume between Iran and the 5+1 group (the permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany), the celebration of the 35th anniversary of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Tuesday, Feb. 11, became the platform for the slinging match ongoing between the proponents of President Hassan Rouhani’s foray into nuclear diplomacy and its hard-line opponents.
As the top brass rose to speak, internal security forces arrested a group of “pro-Rouhani supporters” as they joined the gala occasion at Tehran’s Azadi (Liberation) Square.
The regime’s propaganda machine routinely choreographs these events to cut out dissenting notes. This year, conflicting voices bounced through the revolutionary bombast.
Rouhani’s appeal for friendlier relations with the world’s nations was shouted down by deafening slogans of “Death to America!, Death to Israel! Death to Britain!” Thee coffins draped in their flags were held aloft.
When the president advised “those delusional people who say the military option is on the table… to change their glasses” – promising that those options were no longer valid - demonstrators burned pictures of President Barack Obama at the foot of the platform.
Some of them held up placards proclaiming: "We're Ready for the Big Confrontation." They represented senior radicals of the radical school, such as Ahmed Jannati, who claimed this week that the Islamic Revolution’s founding father Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had aspired to force an armed showdown on Big Satan America.

Threatening invective pours scorn on “enemies’” prowess

Iran’s radical faction believes it can play on Obama’s aversion for the use of military force by muscle-flexing and belligerent threats. The strategy the Iranian hard liners employ is to inflate their own capabilities and scoff at the “enemies’” military prowess.
Wednesday, Feb. 12 Iran’s chief of staff, Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, bluntly reinforced the threatening chorus, saying that Iran is ready for the “decisive battle” against the US and the Zionist regime. "We warn them that if an attack is launched on our troops from any territory, we will invade all the enemy’s possessions.” He added: “If we are targeted from the US bases in the region, we will hit those bases."
The general went on to comment that the “enemies” concluded after studying a military invasion of Iran for ten years that they lacked the ability to carry it out.
Day by day, Iran built up its war message this week.
Sunday, a day before the anniversary, the military test-fired two long-range ballistic missiles after sending two warships to the Atlantic to deploy “close to US shores.”
Washington downplayed their presence, saying only, “They will find the oceans are full of warships from many countries."

Iranian ballistic missiles – models not yet in production

Sunday, Iranian Defense Ministry Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehqan bragged about the unbeatable properties of the two newly-tested rockets. One, he said, was a laser-guided surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missile; the second, capable of carrying multiple warheads and evading enemy missile defenses “to destroy large and multiple targets”.
US Pentagon spokesman Adm. John Kirby commented stiffly that UN Security Council Resolution 1929 prohibits Iran from engaging in “activity related to nuclear-capable missiles, including launches using ballistic missile technology” - and left it at that.
In line with its provocative strategy, DEBKA Weekly's military sources find Iranian military leaders reverting to their old tactic of proudly hailing new home-made weapons systems which exist on paper or are otherwise nowhere near operational.
After two years of intensive efforts, the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guards have failed to produce ballistic missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads. Their missile industry has only managed to improve their rockets’ guidance systems and accuracy – significant in themselves but no breakthrough.
Their menacing tactics this week had two objectives. One was to scare the US Congress into shying away from new and harsher sanctions on Tehran. This happened anyway. Most lawmakers who had initially endorsed the sanctions bill bowed to pressure from the White House and decided to bide their time.
Tehran’s second object was to make President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry back off their assertions that America’s military option is still on the table by pouring scorn on US military capabilities.

Rev Guards spearhead abuse of pro-diplomacy proponents

Last Saturday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech that Rouhani's nuclear policy did not deserve such harsh criticism. Yet even he failed to staunch the hard-line faction’s rage over the interim nuclear deal signed last November. This chink in his fallibility may be symptomatic of the supreme leader’s weakening hold on absolute power.
The most vociferous critics are high-ranking Revolutionary Guards commanders.
Supreme IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jaafari issued a blunt warning to “domestic elements not to try and improve relations with America."
Air Force commander Ali Haji Zadeh said: "Negotiations aren't a bad thing but we must always remember that we are negotiating with the enemy."
Air Defense officer Ebrayim Sayyadi cautioned against the “sellout of our tremendous nuclear achievements for diplomacy.”
According to parliamentarian Ahmad Nabavian, "The Geneva agreement seriously impugned Iran's national honor. We agreed to halt our nuclear program in return for minuscule amounts of cash which really belonged to us and were only frozen.”
He was referring to the $550 million of funds frozen in US banks for decades which Washington released to Tehran last week.

Radicals accuse Rouhani of selling out Iran’s nuclear assets

More and more influential radicals are increasingly outspoken. Under the heat, Rouhani felt compelled to insert in the speech he delivered Tuesday at Azadi Square: "The nation has one leader, one president and one foreign policy" and this must not be questioned.
But the hard-liners were not placated, or put off their schemes for sabotaging the nuclear negotiations resuming next week.
DEBKA Weekly's Iranian sources report that the wilder elements have gone so far as plots for assassinating Foreign Minister Javad Zarif or deposing Rouhani's government and calling a new election.
Another proposal is to put Iran’s nuclear concessions to the six powers in Geneva to national referendum and making sure of their defeat.
While Rouhani talks up the "tremendous achievements" Tehran has won at the negotiating table and the “defeat of the world camp," his radical foes hold him guilty for Iran forfeiting control of its 20-percent enriched uranium stocks and submitting to international demands not to enlarge its reserve of 5-percent enriched uranium, use its new-generation centrifuges, or even increase the number of working centrifuges at its enrichment facilities.
Rouhani is additionally accused of signing a deal allowing UN nuclear watchdog monitors to fully map all the country’s nuclear sites and inspect the Arak heavy water-plutonium reactor at close quarters.
Access to the facilities for uranium-enrichment by laser will also now take place.
If Tehran complies with all the commitments made by its negotiators in Geneva – which is, by the way, a big “if” – Iran will be reduced to treading water on its nuclear program.

Spreading poverty makes nuclear concessions unavoidable

The IRGC commanders’ fury boiled over this week with a new discovery: The destruction of Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles is on the table of negotiations for a final, comprehensive accord, which go forward later this month. This provision has been demanded in the interests of safeguarding Israel and Europe from Iranian missile aggression.
The hard-liners confront the Rouhani faction with Khamenei’s favorite adage: “Give the West an inch and they will take a mile.”
But supreme leader takes a different line these days: He has woken up to a harsh reality that can only be alleviated by President Rouhani’s path of engagement with the West: The Iranian economy has slid past bankruptcy and the Revolutionary Republic will crash by the end of the year without a rescue operation in the form of urgent sanctions relief.
The crisis surfaced in embarrassing scenes last week during the distribution of government “food baskets” in many areas of the country. Each basket contained one chicken, 32 eggs, and a kilo of rice and tea. Starving people mobbed distributors and snatched the meager ration and food riots erupted in many parts of the country.
The supreme leader now maintains that Tehran cannot avoid making nuclear concessions to ease the dire poverty stemming from sanctions across the country. The hard-liners accuse the pro-diplomacy faction of fabricating the show to support their position.
DEBKA Weekly's sources in Tehran see the infighting in Tehran escalating in the weeks and months to come, to cast an ominous cloud over the nuclear talks for a comprehensive agreement.

Action to Cool Infighting in Tehran. Khamenei Divorces Rev Guards from Nuclear Negotiations, Awards Them Control of Mid East Trouble Spots

Action to Cool Infighting in Tehran. Khamenei Divorces Rev Guards from Nuclear Negotiations, Awards Them Control of Mid East Trouble Spots
Debka 14-Feb-14
Before Iran’s discordant Islamic regime tears itself apart, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is working on a redistribution of tasks and authority for separating the feuding factions and cooling the animosity raging between President Hassan Rouhani’s following (and his sponsor, ex-president and current Expediency Council head, Hashemi Rafsanjani), and the militant camp led the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commander, Gen. Ali Jaafari.
DEBKA Weekly’s exclusive Iranian sources have obtained exclusive access to Khamenei's four-part blueprint and the policy redistribution it heralds:
1. He has persuaded the Revolutionary Guards chiefs to stand aside from the international negotiations Iran is conducting with the P5+1 (the five UN Security Council members plus Germany) by offering them the following commitments:
a). No restrictions on 5-percent uranium enrichment.
b). The heavy water reactor under construction in Arak will not be converted to a light water reactor, as demanded by the US, but built as planned for plutonium production.
c) The Fordo underground uranium enrichment plant will continue functioning and America’s demand for its shutdown rejected.
d) Iran’s missile development and production will not be interrupted. It will be financed from Revolutionary Guards funds rather than the state.
e) Iran’s clandestine nuclear facilities will not be exposed to the IAEA and all data about these hidden sites kept secret from the IAEA.
f) The IAEA will continue to be denied direct access to personnel employed in Iran’s military nuclear program.

The IRGC given authority over Mid East trouble spots

2. The IRGC’s business empire will remain independent and outside the realm of state interference. This leaves the Guards in undisputed control of the lucrative import and export of oil and its distillates, as well as other profitable import-export trades.
3. The IRGC – and especially its external operational and intelligence arm, the Al Qods Brigades, are granted full control over national strategic military and diplomatic policy-making for Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians. President Rouhani and his foreign minister Mohammed Javad Zarif will have no standing in Tehran’s decisions in these foreign areas of operation.
4. At the same time, the IRGC is excluded from Iran’s delicate relations in the Gulf region, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as Turkey, Egypt and Afghanistan.
In practical terms, Khamenei, Rouhani, Rafsanjani and Jaafari have struck a deal which puts in the hands of the extremist Revolutionary Guards the task of cementing Iran’s military and political influence and asserting its will in strife-ridden Iraq, Syria and Lebanon on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean, as well as the Palestinians - hence, Israel.
The affairs of those trouble spots are handed over to the extremist Revolutionary Guards leadership as its exclusive domain, with no look-in permitted by the Rouhani government.

Al Qods chief scraps Lebanese unity accord

The Obama administration trusted in nuclear diplomacy for an open door to Tehran’s cooperation in reaching peaceful resolutions of the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts. The US now finds itself having to contend instead with a two-headed, radicalized regime in Tehran, preoccupied with internal dissent rather than external coexistence.
And the IRGC is a fast mover in its newly-assigned terrain.
As debkafile’s military sources first revealed Monday, Feb. 10, the Guards military command has ordered the Lebanese Hizballah to deepen its military involvement in Syria. Al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani took responsibility for executing this order and managing its repercussions on Lebanon’s domestic stability and the Syrian and Lebanese borders with Israel.
The immediate outcome was the scrapping of the national unity government pact in Beirut shortly after it was brokered by Foreign Minister Zarif during his mid-January visit to Beirut. This deal raised hopes for an end to the government crisis plaguing Lebanon for more than a year - until this week, when Gen. Soleimani instructed Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah to pull out.
The Zarif arrangement would have granted the Shiite bloc 9 ministers in the new government – parity with the Sunni-led March 14 Coalition, and more than the six placed at the discretion of President Michel Suleiman. The Iranian general’s action put paid to Lebanon’s hope of stable government in the foreseeable future, betokening the turbulence promised the region by Khamenei’s redistribution of national tasks.

Riyadh Marshals Its Assets Vs Iran. Saudis Procure a Pakistani Nuclear Shield & Troops, also Indian and Japanese Fleets

Riyadh Marshals Its Assets Vs Iran. Saudis Procure a Pakistani Nuclear Shield & Troops, also Indian and Japanese Fleets

Debka 14-Feb-14
The Saudis are preparing to greet Barack Obama’s visit to Riyadh in the last week of March (as yet unannounced) with a formidable display of their military independence of the United States and its policies – especial with regard to Iran.
They are in the throes of a rush job in the short time remaining for clinching long-range military deals with Pakistan, India and Japan, DEBKA Weekly’s military and intelligence sources reveal. Saudi rulers are eager to show the US president that the kingdom’s traditional military alliance with Washington, dating back to the mid-20th century, has been overtaken by solid new partnerships.
The linchpin is the Saudi-Pakistani pact. Its details were finally processed during the visit to Riyadh of Pakistan’s Chief o Army Staff Gen. Raheel Sharif.
The last touches and signatures will be applied when Saudi Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, deputy premier and minister of defense, travels to Islamabad over the coming weekend.
Our sources say that King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif have already seen and approved the final draft of the agreements.
They cover the following points:
1. Pakistan will make nuclear weapons available to Saudi Arabia. They will be deployed in both countries and held ready logistically and operationally for instant use in any contingency that may arise.
2. These preparations will entail the presence of Pakistani military forces in Saudi Arabia and Saudi units in Pakistan to secure the nuclear weapons and use them as needed.
3. Pakistan is to sell the kingdom a fleet of fighter planes and bombers together with rockets, such as the Shaheen 11, which are capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.
Saudi pilots have been trained to carry out such missions. To be on the safe side, Pakistani air crews and officers will be attached to Saudi squadrons and missile batteries.
4. Two armored Pakistani divisions will be posted in Saudi Arabia’s coastal oil regions for defense against a potential Iranian invasion or terrorist strikes and subversion staged by Iranian or pro-Iranian saboteurs drawn from the local Shiite community.

Pakistan’s objection to Obama’s policies generates partnership with Saudis

This wouldn’t be the first time the Pakistani military is imported to the oil kingdom.
In 1979, thousands of Pakistani troops poured into the country to bolster Saudi security when Iranian Islamist revolutionaries overthrew the Shah. Riyadh is estimated to have since invested hundreds of millions of dollars to subsidize Pakistan’s nuclear strike force, culminating in a successful A-bomb test in 1996.
5. The Saudi and Pakistani military have scheduled high-frequency war games.
6. They agree to coordinate their policies on Afghanistan as US forces prepare to draw down in 2014 after 13 years and the Taliban is poised to stage a comeback in Kabul.
For the Pakistani prime minister, the decision to hitch his Afghanistan policy to a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia instead of with Iran, is a historical breakaway from its normal traditions, DEBKA Weekly’s sources say
In addition to Saudi Arabia’s financial largesse, Islamabad is drawn to Riyadh by their shared differences with the Obama administration over its approach to the Taliban.
Both the Pakistanis and Saudis view with extreme distrust the secret talks afoot between American and the Taliban representatives, especially since Iranian emissaries have been co-opted. The Obama administration’s keenness on bolstering Iran’s standing in Afghanistan is far from the liking of both Riyadh and Islamabad.

Riyadh to borrow naval strength from India, Japan

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which have joined forces for a military front to counter the burgeoning US-Iranian alliance in the Gulf, have now opened a second front against the joint US-Iranian strategy for Afghanistan.
In recent weeks DEBKA Weekly’s sources report intense Saudi lobbying of the powers-that-be in New Delhi and Tokyo with offers to post their naval forces at Saudi coastal bases in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea to beef up the defenses of their oil routes against the powerful Iranian navy.
Tuesday, Feb. 11, Revolutionary Guards Navy Commander Ali Fadayi sent chills up American and Saudi spines when he bragged that the (the Americans) “cannot hide in the sea since the entire Middle East region, Western Europe, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz are monitored by us.”
Our military sources report the Saudis in advanced negotiations with New Delhi for posting an Indian naval force to the King Abdulaziz Naval base near the large Saudi oil terminals at Ras Tanur.
With Tokyo, they are discussing a Japanese naval force for deployment in the Gulf and the Red Sea. Before going into practicalities with New Delhi, the Saudis checked with Islamabad to see if there would be any objection to an Indian military presence in Saudi Arabia alongside Pakistani forces.
Islamabad replied with an assurance: No, there is no objection!

God's divine plan of the ages


Sunday, 9 February 2014

Event summary: ‘Added Value: Israel’s Strategic Worth to the EU and its Member States’

Event summary: ‘Added Value: Israel’s Strategic Worth to the EU and its Member States’ 
The Henry Jackson Society 05-Feb-14

This is a summary of an event with José María Aznar, Prime Minister of Spain from 1996- 2004 and the founder and director of the Friends of Israel Initiative [FOI], on 30 January 2014 [in the House of Commons Committee Room 10]; it reflects the views expressed by the speaker, not those of The Henry Jackson Society or its staff. 
During this event, José María Aznar introduced and summarised his report, Value Added: Israel’s Strategic Worth to the European Union and its Member States, produced jointly by the FOI and the Henry Jackson Society. In the midst of a small but growing European campaign to cast Israel as a strategic liability to Europe, the report considers three key areas: Security, Economics and Science/ Technology, and argues that Israel—the Middle East’s only democracy and most innovative economy — is strategically vital for a secure, prosperous and influential Europe. 
Security 
    Israel is the world’s sixth-largest exporter of military and security equipment. 
        It was the first country in the world to produce unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), and today is the world’s leading producer of UAVs. British, Spanish and troops of other EU states have been protected by Israeli drones in Afghanistan. 
        Israeli technology protects European icons including the Eiffel Tower, the Vatican and Buckingham Palace. 
        Israel has world-class intelligence capabilities, and its intelligence on Middle Eastern rogue states and terrorist groups (particularly Hezbollah) is crucial to the security of the EU, which faces many of the same threats. 
Economics 
    The EU is Israel’s leading source of imports and second-leading export destination after the United States. Israel is the EU’s top commercial partner in the Eastern Mediterranean. 
    The total trade relationship between the EU and Israel is roughly €30 billion, a relationship that continuing to grow year by year. 
    Israel has weathered the global economic crisis far better than any EU state, and is third worldwide in terms of projected growth. 
    Having recently discovered large natural gas fields, Israel offers Europe stability in its energy economy and is a solid alternative to the unreliable and authoritarian regimes of Russia and the Persian Gulf states. 
Science and Technology 
    Israel has over the last two decades become a high-tech and innovation powerhouse: 
        Israel has more companies on NASDAQ than any country outside North America; 
        It has the third- highest rate of entrepreneurship worldwide; 
        11% of the nearly 300 projects approved by the European Research Council in 2013 went to young Israeli scientists, putting it behind only Germany and the UK. 
Conclusions and Recommendations 
    Due to its Western culture and the benefits it brings the European Union, Israel should become a full member of the EU without pre-conditions. 
    Unfortunately, recent discriminatory measures only serve to confirm Israeli suspicions of European hostility: 
        Europe and Israel have clashed over the alleged disproportionality of Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon, and its continued building in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. 
        In 2013, the European Commission set guidelines prohibiting EU funds from going to Israeli entities beyond the country’s pre- 1967 ‘Green Line’ boundary. 
        Palestinian incitement is not condemned by the EU as are Israeli settlements. 
        This perception of hostility could mean Israelis will become more inclined to do business with the growing economies of the Far East rather than the EU. 
        During questions, Mr. Aznar argued that whilst US Secretary of State John Kerry’s new Mideast peace initiative is promising, it is unfair and unthinkable or Israel to sign an agreement with a state that refuses the Jewish state’s right to exist. 
        Europe must defend Israel if we want to preserve the West and its way of life. 
        Israel’s relationship with the EU and its member states is closer than commonly portrayed, and Israel is an enormously valuable asset to Europe. For the EU’s sake, this strategic relationship must be not only acknowledged but enhanced.